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Old 12-07-2013, 04:18 AM
sgnmjaos9 sgnmjaos9 is offline
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Even now there is a way forward, based on a 69 months crisis management emergency plan
By Munawar B. Ahmad
Because the country witnesses the worstever rioting, chaos and disorder by angry protesters against the frequent Parajumpers Down Jacket and prolonged power and gas outages underneath the full media glare, it's the industrial and business activity across the country Supra Tk Society Purple which has taken the worst hit, rendering thousands of people unemployed in major industrial cities of Punjab along with other parts of the country.
Who is responsible for this mess? Why no corrective action was taken 4 years back, or even two years Pandora Charms Nz ago once the writing was very much on your wall? Are there any steps taken how to resolve the crisis? And last but not the least, why the government functionaries and ministers failed to take action when they were forewarned about the looming crisis?
All we hear about is the many meetings of the various Senate and Parliamentary bodies around the matter, in which the focus on personal agendas of the parliamentarians takes precedence over the crisis at hand, while the prime minister is once more setting up a new "Energy Task Force," and proposals for holding of strategic energy roundtables and dialogues through the Friends of Democratic Pakistan, World Bank and USAID are floated around.
Where does the buck stop? Is there no accountability of ministers and federal secretaries, along with other government functionaries, past and present in the water power and petroleum and natural resources ministries to that of the finance ministry? Clearly with the firm claim of Pm Yusuf Raza Gillani that the Parliament is Supreme, the duty is fairly and squarely on his shoulders.
But pm needs sound professional advice and a forceful leadership at the helm of concerned ministries to put this ailing sector back on track. However, this has not happened, nor the best minister made any visible efforts to put in place credible professionals who can formulate sound policies and implementation plans.
Using the state organizations and ministries being clueless or misdirected, the resulting gas and power Air Jordan 11 For Sale shortages ought to be very much expected. These warnings were brushed aside by terming Nike Air Max 90 Sale such projections as 'nuisance' through the wise advisors of the pm.
It is now obvious that the inevitable has happened with gas shortages ranging from 1 bcfd to 1.5 bcfd and power supply gap hovering in the range of 3,000 to 6,000 MW. This scenario has become even more precarious using the circular debt, which presently has mounted to above Rs650 billion ($7 billion).
The circular debt includes Rs301 billion from the power sector parked in Power Holding Limited (PHL) which an interest of Rs40 billion is being paid annually. The additional Rs350 billion has been accumulated over the past few years in the energy sector companies including OGDCL, PSL, PPL, SSGC, SNGPL, GHL, KESC, WAPDA as well as the power sector utilities. This case has created an environment wherein new projects are held up by the local and overseas investors, while banking institutions and banks are unwilling to provide debt financing as there is no surety or comfort that there projects would receive payment for the supply of natural gas, LNG, or electrical power. Consequently Vibram Five Fingers Amazon the energy sector meltdown is now very much on hand, which can lead to the collapse from the national economy.
The concerned oil and gas and power companies, and the government departments have failed to recognise the gravity of the situation. They have not done any effective planning or initiated actions in a timely manner to wardoff the energy crisis. To make matters worse, there is still no viable Energy Plan or any effective action visible to provide even an interim or perhaps a short term solution.
There is talk of Bhasha Dam, which will take 10+ years in completion. The much touted Iran pipeline, based on a flawed strategy, will certainly not materialise in five, or perhaps ten years. And there is talk of importing 5,000 MW electric power from Iran, for which there is no power plant even designed yet, nor is there the requisite planning and funds allocated for the 500 KV transmission line from the border to Karachi or Quetta.
There are multibilliondollar dreams and visions of commissions and kickbacks in hundreds of millions dollars, but no real solution to the immediate crisis or a 23 year shortterm plan exists even in writing.
It was informed in April 2008 to the secretaries of ministries of water and power, finance and oil and gas that "as the emerging scenario has become on hand, and the situation will worsen on weekly basis, the clear outcome can be visualized. In addition to shutting down of major industry, massive public outcry, social disorder and riots can be expected if no immediate solution is put in place."
What is much more unfortunate is that various DFI's, USAID and FODP are also misguided and misinformed by these ministries and also the managing directors of the state companies, along with other high officials.
They all took part in the 'Energy Round Table' conferences, strategic energy dialogue, and prime minister's energy crisis meetings, and yet failed Montblanc Ingrid Bergman to recognise the obvious emerging scenario.
The united states Secretary of State launched a $250 million much touted Signature Energy Programme and USAID, World Bank supported energy sector reform programme were only hollow drums. The stated objectives of these programmes, now two years or so in the running were, "to reform the power (energy) sector and rapidly close the supplydemand gap." May one ask regarding how much the gap has been closed? Or has it really increased? This remains a clear case of the blind leading the blind.
Within this dismal scenario and failure of the government and its state organisations and sector Discount Uggs Canada companies, the question the common man asks what is the solution? When can we see a flicker of hope, an easy at the end of the tunnel?
Pakistani professionals don't lack the ability to deliver. We have a proven record of achieving even what many considered impossible. So, even today, there is a way forward, based on a 69 months "crisis management" emergency plan. In this period, radical measures which range from revision of gas allocation policy, tariff rationalisation, interim bridging of the circular debt, change in Buy Longchamp Bag Online Australia the power and gas consumption patterns, recovery of lost, idle power generation capacity, bringing online in country proven and available gas and LPG resources, and last although not the least drastic reduction through coercive measures of gas and power theft, could be undertaken.
These steps will provide interim relief, especially to the industry and the poor, lowincome households. A brief term plan (13 years) and mediumterm plan 35 years should be followed by a longterm plan of 625 years aiming for energy sufficiency, security, sustainability and sovereignty for Pakistan in the 21st century.
While this is very much doable, the question is who will, or can deliver on this type of formidable challenge? Certainly not the present team of selfproclaimed "know it all" wizards or "rental rajas" or nuclearlab physicists turned underground coal gasification experts, or even the bureaucracy and teams of section officers turned energy experts in the various ministries. The NEA, which should report direct towards the prime minister, must get the water and power, petroleum and natural resources ministries as well as their affiliated organisations under its wings. The NEA should be tasked to undertake the energy sector planning and oversee the approved project implementation.
In the present meltdown scenario, immediate action is required, lest Pakistan's energy sector goes in the final phase of a total meltdown, beyond a recovery threshold. The experts of Pakistan can and will deliver to the country if they are allowed to.
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