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Old 03-07-2006, 01:51 PM
elva
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Post Four-month decline in sales may signal end of five-year real estate boom

COEUR d'ALENE -- For decades the economy of Idaho, particularly in the north, lagged behind that of much of the rest of the country. For once, that could be a good thing.

The five-year housing boom may be slowing across the U.S., and the slowdown is already rippling through the economy.

In the last week, the Commerce Department reported that January sales of new single-family homes fell 5 percent -- the fourth decline in seven months -- and the backlog of unsold new homes hit a record. And the National Association of Realtors said used home sales slipped 2.8 percent in January, the fourth straight drop and 5 percent below January 2005.

The home market cooled a little in North Idaho late last year, but is expected to regain its upward momentum as the weather improves.

"Talking with other contractors, I don't think there will be a substantial cutback," said Charlie Rens of Image Homes and first vice president of the North Idaho Building Contractors Association.

Nationally, builders reported a few hiccups. Upscale Toll Brothers Inc. said signed contracts in the November-January period fell 21 percent from a year ago, and KB Home reported more buyers backing out of contracts.

Still, the prospect of a housing slowdown appears less frightening than it did a few months ago, according to those who track the industry. There seems to be little concern that a much-touted housing bubble will lead to a collapse in sales and prices.

New Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said last month housing would enter a moderate slowdown but not a crash.

William Mack, a housing analyst for Standard & Poor's, predicted "a soft landing. The overall market is just taking a step back."

Even if that happens, the baby boomers who sell elsewhere and look to North Idaho as their new home will still find bargains, said Dennis White, an agent at Coldwell Banker Schneidmiller Realty.

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