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Old 12-10-2013, 05:18 AM
sqmtfsr3 sqmtfsr3 is offline
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Default its smart to take chances. wil -47

1. Know your scoring system. If you're in a standardformat pool that rewards one point for a Round of 64 win, two points for that Round of 32, and so on, don't pick a lot of upsets. It does not pay. As long as you get two or three Final Four teams and also the champ, you'll be in the hunt.
Other pools reward risktakers, giving twice the points when you correctly pick a lower seed to win. Some make use of a "multiplier" in which a No. 1 seed earns one point for a victory, while a No. 11 seed earns 11 points. In those pools, it pays to take chances.
2. There are heard of Georgia Tech professors Joel Sokol and Paul Kvam, now's the time to get familiar with them. They created a formula that's proven remarkably accurate for Cheap Nike Cortez Shoes predicting wins and losses within the NCAA Tournament. It's called LRMC, for "Logistic Regression/Markov Chain Model." It factors in margin of victory, strength of schedule and road wins.
Their bracket expires, and the professors have No. 3 seed Florida beating No. 1seed Gonzaga for the title. The profs have three No. 1 seeds within the Final Four: Gonzaga, Louisville and Indiana.
3. Winning a conference tournament is not essential. Five of the last 15 national champs won the title Peuterey Ridge Integral after losing in their conference tourney: Kentucky (2012), New york (2009, 2005), Syracuse (2003) and Maryland (2002). But no team has won everything after losing its conference tourney opener. That spells doom without. 2 seed Duke with no. 3 Marquette, which both went down early last week.
4. Vegas knows best. Bookmakers have the best power ratings around, and their lines are better indicators of the team's strength than its seeding is. But simply two lowerseeded teams, No. 9 Missouri with no. 11 Minnesota, are favored over higher seeds. Mizzou opened as a 2point favorite over No. 8 seed Colorado State, and the Golden Gophers opened as 2.5point faves over No. 6 UCLA.
The Linemakers' Power Ratings: How the tournament teams Polo Ralph Lauren Shirts Women stack up
5. The Mountain West is still searching for respect. The MWC was the fifthbest conference, just barely behind the ACC and in front of the Pac12, SEC, and Atlantic 10, based on Jeff Sagarin's ratings. The Mountain West sent five teams towards the tourney: New Mexico, UNLV, Colorado State, Boise State and San Diego State. But before you make some chic picks, recall the conference is 1533 in the NCAA Tournament and it has never sent a team towards the Elite Eight.
6. Defensive efficiency matters. Cheap Timberland Boots Canada Bleacher Report noted that since analyst Ken Pomeroy started computing adjusted defensive efficiency in 2003, a team ranked 19th or better for the reason that category and usually in the top ten has won the tournament. Louisville, Florida, Georgetown, Wisconsin and Kansas go into the tourney as the top five in that stat.
7. Everyone knows a No. 16 seed has never beaten a No. 1. The little guys are 0for112 and counting. Only seven Nos. 14 or 15 seeds have won a tournament game within the last 13 years, and two of those came last year when 15seeds Lehigh and Norfolk State performed stunners over Duke and Missouri, respectively. In contrast, a No. 12 seed makes the Round of 32 in 11 of history 12 years.
8. Rick Pitino doesn't leave early. This really is Pitino's sixth tournament coaching the No. The previous five won the championship once (1996), lost within the title game once, reached the Final Four once and got eliminated twice within the Elite Eight. And only among those teams, the 1997 Kentucky squad, lost to a team seeded lower than No. 2.
9. Believe in gut. Sure, we've just provided a bunch of predictive, statistical info, try not to rely solely on someone else's expertise. Where's the fun for the reason that? Take ownership. Show conviction in a team you believe in, regardless of what Oakley Outlet Melbourne experts say. When that squad comes through, you'll feel an in-depth sense of satisfaction.
10. An intelligent sleeper pick comes from Butler coach Brad Stevens. He knows what it takes to go deep within the tournament (he led Butler to the finals in 2010 and 2011), and that he likes Saint Louis this year. The fourthseeded Billikens Woolrich Jackets Usa play the kind of basketball that wears well in March and Mont Blanc Fountain Pens For Sale Uk April.
"I've said all year long to anyone who would listen to me, and even people who wouldn't, how good Saint Louis is," Stevens said. "They're a legitimate contender to win everything. I believe that wholeheartedly.
"On pure strength, there is no one better than these guys," Stevens added. "I know most people are going to be Insanity Asylum 2 chasing Indiana in the tournament, but Saint Louis is old. They've been through it, they've done it, and they are men. They are men."

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